My Sister
S & M

Yiheng's Photos
Shuquan's Photos
Pei Yee's Photos
Yun Qin's Photos



February 2005
March 2005
April 2005
May 2005
June 2005
July 2005
August 2005
September 2005
October 2005
November 2005
December 2005
January 2006
February 2006
March 2006
April 2006
May 2006
June 2006
July 2006
August 2006
September 2006
October 2006
November 2006
December 2006
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
August 2007
September 2007
October 2007
November 2007
December 2007
January 2008
February 2008
March 2008
April 2008
May 2008
June 2008
July 2008
August 2008
September 2008
November 2008
January 2009
February 2009
March 2009
April 2009
May 2009
June 2009
July 2009
August 2009
September 2009
October 2009
November 2009


Monday, June 20, 2005
Marilyn and the Monty Hall Problem -vww

The Monty Hall Problem
You're on a gameshow, where there are three doors. Behind 2 of the doors are goats. Only one door leads to the prize. You pick a door, and then, BEFORE YOUR DOOR IS OPENED, the gameshow host opens one of the OTHER doors, revealing a goat. Then he gives you the choice of sticking with your original guess, or switching to the other unopened door. The question is, which gives you greater odds of winning?
Named for its similarity to the Let's Make a Deal game show hosted by Monty Hall, the problem became famous when Marilyn vos Savant (also famous for her insanely high IQ) published the solution that the odds of winning is higher when you switch to the other unopened door. Tens of thousands of people who disagreed sent letters demanding that she admit she was wrong. Many of them were professors from well-established universities too.

I am writing about this because I recently came across books and people making references to this problem. Although it seems pretty obvious to me that Marilyn vos Savant was correct, I am quite puzzled as to why so many people do not think so. A book I bought recently stated that it was due to an ambiguity in the phrasing of the question. This resulted in two possible interpretations, which yielded two different answers. Clearly, I have interpreted the question the same way as vos Savant. Actually, I find that the other interpretation is quite an abnormal way of interpreting the question.

Anyway, here are some other interesting links I googled up on Marilyn vos Savant.
1. Wikipedia entry
2. Marilyn is Wrong!
3. Official site (Quite an empty site but I like the red jacket)

-- permalink --
Yiheng made
9:30 AM


Post a Comment



Previous Posts

Chiroptera Guy Starts

Damn Tired Man

Love more live long

I is dumb.

The hardest riddle available on the internet!

Recent Books part 2

Countries Visited

Dripping Tap Saves Utility Bills?

Exciting New Plans

On PSC's management of scholars

Current Read


Last Three Books


The Ultimate Encyclopedia of Mythology
Arthur Cotterell, Rachel Storm

Michael Ende

Those Before


Paycheck: And Other Classic Stories By
Philip K. Dick

Mirror Mirror: A Novel
Gregory Maguire

American Gods
Neil Gaiman

Maya 5 Fundamentals
Garry Lewis, Jim Lammers

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
J. K. Rowling