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Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Deal Or No Deal? -vvw

I just watched the new game show Deal Or No Deal and frankly, I don't see why everyone is so excited when the contestant chooses the boxes to open.

Only the first box you choose decides what you might win. All the subsequent boxes you open don't do anything at all except help you evaluate your expected winnings. Perhaps they affect the banker's offer but since his offers are always below the expected value (I'm talking about statistical mean here), you can jolly well ignore him all the way.

Hence, there's really no point being so cautious in choosing the boxes. First, they don't affect what you already have. Second, it's all RANDOM and UNKNOWN anyway. What you really should do is to choose the box with the ugliest model. Then eliminate them in ascending order of looks so you have more time to ogle at the pretty ones.

-- permalink --
Yiheng made
9:36 PM


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